Global Economic Prospects

The global economic recovery is continuing but at a somewhat slower pace than was anticipated six months ago. Specifically, using the country weights from the IMF's World Economic Outlook, the forecast for real GDP growth in the world economy during 2002 (i.e., on a fourthquarter- to-fourth-quarter basis) is cut by about half a percentage point to 3 percent-- a pace that is slightly below my estimate of the potential growth rate for world GDP. This downward revision reflects primarily slower growth than earlier expected during the first half of 2002 in most industrial countries and the expectation that growth will remain somewhat more sluggish than earlier expected at least through year-end. For 2003, the forecast for global economic growth is also cut by about half a percentage point--to 4 percent--reflecting both general factors suggesting slightly weaker performance in many industrial and developing countries and the particular economic risks arising from possible military action against Iraq and from potential credit events affecting key developing countries. Despite these downward revisions, however, there is little doubt that the world economy will see significant improvement this year from the 1 percent growth recorded in 2001, and it is still reasonable to expect further improvement to a growth rate modestly above global potential during 2003.

Global Economic Prospects: Through the Fog of Uncertainty

The global economic recovery lost considerable momentum in late 2002 and appears likely to remain sluggish through the fi rst half of 2003 before accelerating again late this year and in 2004. The escalation of world oil prices and uncertainties surrounding the economic effects of the US-led invasion of Iraq are key factors contributing to the current slowdown and clouding near-term economic prospects. While the risks of ongoing military operations--especially the level of casualties and longer-term political consequences--are still diffi cult to assess, the most likely scenario is a rapid removal of the present Iraqi regime without enduring damage to Iraq's economic infrastructure. This should be followed by bounce-back in consumer and business confi dence and in fi nancial market sentiment and by a de-escalation of world oil prices--all contributing to a strengthening of growth in the second half of this year and beyond.

The Economics of Content Protection

In a model that allows smooth substitution between domestic and imported inputs, content protection distorts inout choice but does not force a divergence between price and unit production cost. Content protection biases gains intechnical efficiency away from those saving domestic input and toward those saving imported input. By increasing derived demand for the domestic input,a marginally effective content requirement benefits suppliers of this input. Increases in the content requirement above the marginally effective level increase such benefits to suppliers of the domestic input provided that the price elasticity of demand for the final product is less than a critical value. The consequences of content protection are not materially affected by monopoly in the domestic final product market or monopsony in the domestic input market unless such monopoly or monopsony are created by content protection. The situation of a monopolistic supplier of the domestic input is enhanced by content protection.

Economically Sensible Solutions for Linear Rational Expectations Models with Forward and Backward Looking Dynamic Processes

Using variants of a modified version of Dornbusch's model of price level and exchange rate dynamics, it is demonstrated that satisfaction of the formal condition for existence of a unigue non-explosive solution of a linear rational expectations model with forward and backward looking dynamic processes (equality of the number of stable roots with the number of independent backward looking processes) does not guarantee the economic sensibility of this solution, even if one accepts the usual arguments for excluding "speculative babbles" from the solutions of such models. Moreover, satisfaction of the formal condition for existence of an infinity of non-explosive solutions for such rational expectations models (more stable roots than independent backward looking processes) does not assure that any of these solutions is economically sensible.

Monetary and Fiscal Policies in an Open Economy

The central theme of this paper is that international linkages between national economies influence, in fundamentally important ways, the effectiveness and proper conduct of national macroeconomic policies. Specifically, our purpose is to summarize the implications for the conduct of macroeconomic policies in open economies of both the traditional approach to open economy macroeconomics (as developed largely by James Meade, Robert Mundell, and J. Marcus Fleming) and of more recent developments. Our discussion is organized around three key linkages between national economies: through commodity trade; through capital mobility; and through exchange of national monies. These linkages have important implications concerning the effects of macroeconomic policies in open economies that differ from the effects of such policies in closed economies. Recent developments in the theory of macroeconomic policy have established conditions for the effectiveness of policies in influencing output and employment which emphasize the distinction between anticipated and unanticipated policy actions, the importance of incomplete information, and the consequences of contracts that fix nominal wages and prices over finite intervals. In this paper, we shall not analyze how these conditions are modified in an open economy. However, since our concern is with macro-economic policy, a principal objective of which is to influence output and employment, we shall assume that requisite conditions for such influence are satisfied.